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The International Energy Agency has halved its forecast for renewable energy growth in the U.S. by 2030, on account of the Trump administration's recent policy changes. "A significant factor in this revision is the comprehensive One Big Beautiful Bill Act," the IEA wrote in its Renewables 2025 report released on Tuesday, writes Seeking Alpha.

Revised outlook: The U.S. is now expected to add almost 250 gigawatts of renewable energy capacity between 2025 and 2030, down from the IEA's previous forecast of 500 GW. The revision reflects policy changes such as the earlier phase-out of federal tax credits, new import restrictions, the suspension of new offshore wind leasing, and restricting the permitting of onshore wind and solar projects on federal land. To note, tax credits had been the main driver of renewables growth in the U.S. since their introduction in 1992.

Broader forecast: Global renewable power capacity is expected to double by 2030, increasing by 4,600 GW. Solar would account for almost 80% of this increase, followed by wind. The global forecast was revised lower by 5% from the IEA's previous forecast, mainly due to policy changes in the U.S. and China. "China's shift from long-term fixed tariffs to an auction-based contract-for-difference system is a key uncertainty for global renewable capacity growth," the IEA noted.

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