What did the crude oil buyers know and when did they know it?

I have been studying the price charts as a technical chart analyst for over 30 years. The price tells all and everything is in the price.

On January 27, 2026 crude oil futures moved above its 50-day moving average AND its 200-day average closing that day at $62.57 a barrel. The Iran war did not start until a month later. Today, crude oil futures closed at $91.27 a barrel a 45% gain in a month! Nothing to see here…Hmmm.

The February employment number was released this morning with a disappointing reduction of 92,000 jobs and the unemployment rate going up to 4.4%. Combined with the sticky inflation numbers of late, we could be looking at Jimmy Carter-type stagflation. He also faced an oil shock.

What does that mean for the metals? Gold is above its 50 and 200-day moving averages. Silver closed below its 50-day moving average on March 3^rd and is barely below it. A potentially downside limiting factor is that when silver was in the $20-$30 an ounce range it was creating a floor. One could be forming here in the $80-$90 range.

For the week, gold was down 2.17%, silver was down 10.27%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) was down 3.01% and on February 27, 2026 moved significantly below its 50-day moving average.

Until next time…

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