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Many remember how the gubernatorial race of 2022 between Kathy Hochul and Lee Zeldin was a nail biter, with Zeldin losing by a chin whisker. This year’s race between the governess (of the NY nanny state) and Bruce Blakeman may be closer than even that!
In August, ebullient heady headlines were proclaimed by royal trumpeters: “Hochul has an incredible 10-point lead over Blakeman.”
They forgot to offer the perspective that in June, the lead had granted her a 20-point margin, one which she could have safely claimed as her victory buffer! When one looks at June to August polling the first glaring fact is that there had been a 10-point drop! Still ahead but a rapid plummet.
Why was she still ahead in the polls by 10 points in August? Dr. Steve Turley, political commentator and professor, informs listeners of the “Summer Response Bias.” In other words, Republicans are mostly otherwise focused during vacation time. They are simply not paying attention to the upcoming election season, preferring fishing, boating, traveling or barbecuing and not answering pollsters.
Labor Day has come and gone. Hochul’s best buddy, Mayor Mamdani, has embarrassed himself while showing disdain for the grief of the families of September 11 victims; simultaneously AOC was seen laughing with him while others wept. The Hochul Hijab photos have now been seen by plenty of New York State voters. Optics are everything headed into the electoral season.
Hochul is technically STILL “winning,” or is she really “LOSING” in a way reminiscent of the melting down of the Wicked Witch of the West in the Wizard of Oz? “Now look what you’ve done,” cries the actress Margaret Hamilton as Dorothy, played by Judy Garland, looks on in amazement and incredulity.
Even before Labor Day, while people were beginning to focus somewhat as they had to prepare for the end of summer, it was obvious that the “incredible” 20 then 10-point lead was wilting like the frost-bit petals which one sees in late autumn gardens. The big chill has not yet hit the northeast, let alone New York State, yet the electoral petals are already withering without the kiss of ice.
Yes, Hochul is still “winnin’” but she really ain’t! Neither has Blakeman yet won, but he can boast of the Big MO (Momentum) behind him. As former Democrat fundraiser, Lindi Li, recently told commentator Stephen Gardener, “I’d rather be behind and have the Big MO, then be ahead and not have it.” Obviously, winnin’ jes ain’t enuf!
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