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Venezuela’s long-defaulted bonds are suddenly one of the hottest trades in emerging markets.
Prices on the country’s benchmark notes due in October 2026 have surged to about 43 cents on the dollar, more than doubling since August. The rally comes as traders reassess recovery prospects on the distressed securities following the surprise removal of President Nicolas Maduro and a shift in U.S. policy that has opened the door to a potential restructuring of the nation’s debt.

Investors are betting that a faster-than-expected political transition along with a clearer path to asset recovery could unlock value that has been frozen for nearly a decade. Venezuela fell into default in late 2017 after failing to make payments on overseas bonds issued by both the government and its state-owned oil producer PDVSA. Fidelity Investments and T. Rowe Price are among the holders that own significant amounts of these defaulted bonds, according to reports.
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